by Ben on November 30 at 7:28PM
Earlier today, many Met fans found themselves up in arms as the team acquired Ryan Church along with Brian Schneider in exchange for the young Lastings Milledge. The outrage could be seen across internet message boards, comment sections, sports talk radio and my company email inbox as Mets fans lashed out at management for dealing one of the organization's more promising young positional players. The deal was not only lambasted by fans but also by respected baseball analysts including the venerable Keith Law, one of the better judges of talent among the experts.
On the surface this deal looks like a "heist" (as Law so bluntly put it) by the Nats. However, upon examining the numbers and considering the New York Mets current situation, this is a potentially beneficial deal in the short-term (next 2-3 years) given the following stipulation: the Mets go out and land a front-line starter such as Erik Bedard, Danny Haren or to a lesser extent Joe Blanton.
Ryan Church is an intriguing player in my eyes. Similar to Xavier Nady when he was acquired prior to the 2006 season, Church hasn't gotten the opportunity to play everyday in his career, but has performed well in a platoon role with limited at-bats. Last season, while playing in cavernous RFK stadium in a poor lineup, Church hit .272 with 15 HRs and 70 RBIs, good for a share of the team lead, in only 470 ABs. His OPS was around .800 where it has stood for most of his career; a good indicator his numbers are not a fluke and he may have room for improvement. While not eye popping, those numbers in regular playing time which is roughly 550 ABs extrapolate out to approximately 18 HRs and 81 RBIs, well above the average production for a #7 in an NL lineup where he will most likely hit with the Mets.
Church is also a solid defensive outfielder with the ability to play all three outfield positions. He will serve as a defensive upgrade in right field and pair with Carlos Beltran to cover a lot of ground. Outfield defense is especially important for the Mets as their pitching staff is comprised of fly ball pitchers that put a lot of balls in play.
The other player acquired in this deal is Brian Schneider, an excellent defensive catcher who provides the Mets with stability at the catcher position. Schneider's ability to throw out baserunners is a big asset in the NL east, a division laden with speedy base stealers. Given the Mets offensive prowess, he is a better fit than Johnny Estrada who is very poor defensively and Ramon Castro who is injury prone.
I believe that given this team's aging key pieces - Pedro, Alou, Castillo, Delgado and Wagner - the window for fielding a championship team falls in a 2-3 year window. The additions of Church and Schneider bring great intangibles in terms of defense and leadership (Schneider is great at handling young pitchers and has worked with Maine in the past) in the short-term. These players are the type of role players that can put a talented roster over the top. However, if the Mets fail to land a frontline starter using their remaining chips - Carlos Gomez, Mike Pelfrey, Phillip Humber and/or Aaron Heilman (on the verge of a total implosion) - then this deal's immediate impact will be marginal and the Lastings impressions may be disastrous.
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